Mobile & Wireless Predictions 2005

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu in their TMT Trends: Mobile & Wireless Predictions 2005 identify some trends to watch in 2005, including:

Two Billion Mobile Subscribers by YE2005
The global market for voice services, both fixed and mobile, is rapidly approaching $1 trillion. In 2005, mobile operators must try to capture as much of that value as possible encouraging customers to migrate from fixed lines, and carefully managing services and pricing to maximize profitability. For many operators, voice revenue will be crucial to funding 3G rollouts.

The Year of 3G
2005 will see dozens of 3G networks go live. Initial consumer interest and adoption may well be low, but by year-end the situation should improve markedly in many countries.

Mobile Penetration Will Exceed 100%
This is big news for the mobile industry. Mobile penetration in excess of 100 percent, will become reality in a growing number of markets in 2005. This trend will help make 2G a highly lucrative business for some operators, particularly for 2G pure plays. An increasing number of customers are taking a second 2G (or even 3G) subscription for data. Last years growth in smart phones and mobile e-mail devices will continue to gather pace in 2005. Many customers, particularly enterprise users, will choose to keep voice and data on separate devices.

Messaging
Interpersonal communication has powered the mobile revolution, and will continue to do so in 2005 and beyond. Mobile e-mail will grow very rapidly in both the personal and enterprise markets, and text messaging will continue to account for up to 20 percent of operator revenue.

Picture messaging will increase in 2005, achieving four important milestones. First, the installed base of camera phones will be large enough to allow peer groups to start making active use of picture messaging services. Second, the increasing availability of phones with megapixel cameras will improve overall image quality. Third, operators will likely lower their prices, making picture messaging more competitive with text. Finally, both operators and handset vendors will move to make picture messaging services much easier to use.